Market Update

 Market Update – June 2025

hbragg Market News, Market Update

This month we’re still seeing uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs which continue to cast a shadow over procurement strategies. Some consumers remain hesitant to commit to additional volumes, and overall confidence heading into Q3 is muted. Without a clear resolution on tariffs and market volatility, near-term strength appears unlikely on some of the commodities.

Steel:

The steel market has hopefully bottomed out with all grades moving sideways for June. While consumers were anticipating lower steel prices on shred and cut grades, some stronger buying programs across the Midwest steel mills helped to boost prices to remain the same as last month. This likely helped to absorb a portion of the overhanging scrap in the market. Seeing an increase in futures trading promises some hope for a stronger July market.

Non-ferrous: 

The US increasing aluminum and steel tariffs from 25% to 50% has created an international stir. The Midwest Premium jumped to record levels last week once the additional tariffs were determined, driving pricing to unprecedented heights. As a result, aluminum mills lowered their buying prices to offset the rapidly rising MWTP. Several UBC (Used Beverage Can) mills are full for June and July, with abundant supply and limited availability until at least August. Rest assured, being the largest UBC processor in North America, USM contracts allow us to continue to process and deliver all of our material as scheduled.

Copper spreads continued to widen the past week during some Comex swings and tepid domestic demand. Large copper scrap volumes are remaining in the US with consumers still not showing a real demand. There is a growing concern that copper may be next in line for an increased tariff and that  fallout that we’re seeing with aluminum. 

Stainless and Alloy:

LME Nickel continues to trade within a narrow range, yet demand has become increasingly insufficient. This weakening appetite has applied downward pressure on pricing, with notable discounts emerging across 304 and 316 stainless grades. Chrome stainless is similarly trending lower, driven by ongoing decline in iron values this month.

High-temperature alloys remain relatively stable, sustained by selective demand. However, market sentiment suggests that supply may soon outpace forecasts, particularly as consumers approach inventory thresholds.

Titanium grades continue to soften amid persistent demand weakness, compounded by a consistent influx of lower-cost Ferro Titanium, which is steadily accumulating in the market.

Tool Steel, High-Speed Steel, and Tungsten alloys remain firm. However, pricing may trend upward in the near term, as ongoing tariffs and constrained global flows tighten domestic supply and create upward pressure.

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 Market Update – May 2025

hbragg Market News, Market Update

Good afternoon,

We’re continuing to see some weakened commodities as we near the summer months. The market is clouded by uncertainty, particularly regarding the future impact of tariffs. Domestic consumers continue to exhibit some buying interest, though activity levels are noticeably down compared to this time last year. 

Steel:

Steel prices tumbled across all grades this month with ample scrap supply, and seasonally stronger inbound flows in the construction sector.  Manufacturing has seen a slow down in some areas, including Automaker Ford temporarily shutting down production at it’s Chicago assembly plant following supple chain disruption. These factors combined have led to smaller than expected buying programs for the steel mills in many regions.

Non-ferrous:

While the copper gained back some of its April loss due to the pause on some tariffs, the export market has remained tight with minimal interest for material. Copper spreads remain wide with the continued oversupply in the domestic market and no growth in consumer outputs.

Aluminum pricing has remained fairly consistent over the past month with current demand keeping up with the supply. Some tariffs were reduced this past weekend between the US and China following trade talks this past weekend in Geneva. We’ll see over the next few weeks how this impacts pricing.

Used beverage can (UBC) consumers have secured material for May and much of June. Material previously being exported is now staying domestic resulting in a backlog of recyclables. 

Stainless and Alloy:

Following the disruption in pricing during April, the 30-day average for LME Nickel has remained confined within a narrow trading range. Pricing for both Stainless and Chrome Stainless remains relatively stable, though a short-term decline may be on the horizon as iron markets are softening this month. Manufacturing output has slowed, leading to reduced scrap generation. This tightening of supply is contributing to price stability in Stainless Steel, with demand holding steady for now.

Certain High-Temperature Alloys continue to enjoy solid demand, though others are experiencing increased downward price pressure driven by shifts in usage and reduced demand. The timing of a recovery in this segment remains uncertain.

The Titanium market continues to face challenges amid the broader manufacturing slowdown. Mills are opting for lower-cost inputs, which is exerting further pressure on prime-grade Titanium values. Tool Steel, High-Speed Steel, and Tungsten Alloys are maintaining their value well. Limited imports from China have fueled increased domestic demand, supporting pricing resilience in these categories.

 Market Update – April 2025

hbragg Market Update

Good afternoon,

This month’s update drastically changed from last month’s non-ferrous commodities reaching historically high levels. The impact of tariffs on global markets continues to be the center focus.  

Steel:

Steel pricing decreased across all grades at various levels with shred scrap taking the largest hit. US steel production has fallen in April, primarily in Southern, Northeastern and Western regions. Ample scrap supply coupled with the decreased production contributed to this month’s decline. 

Non-ferrous:

The copper market plummeted over $1/lb in the past 2 weeks, with the majority of the decline occurring after last Wednesday’s tariff announcement. LME aluminum down almost 20 cents during the same time period. Widened copper scrap spreads remain with the tariff discussions still underway. 

Used beverage can (UBC) buyers dropped their buying prices to a five-month low on Thursday because the London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum price fell to a seven-month low following Wednesday’s tariff announcement.

Stainless and Alloy:

LME Nickel saw a sharp retreat ahead of impending global tariffs, further dropping to its lowest level this year – down nearly 13% from its 30-day average.  The resulting uncertainty, compounded by softening ferrous values, prompted mills and consumers to adjust pricing downward.  Stainless grades followed suit, with 304 declining by nearly 10% and 316 by 5%, while chrome-bearing stainless grades also corrected amid weakening chrome and ferrous markets.

High-temperature alloys, particularly VAC-grade materials rich in Nickel, Molybdenum, and Cobalt, experienced even steeper price declines.  

Titanium prices fell as well, driven by reduced aerospace output and limited demand of premium wrought solids.  Lower-grade titanium products, including Ferro Ti and Steel Mill grades, saw minor discounts, suggesting the market may be nearing a price floor.

Tool steels and high-speed steels remain mostly flat but are expected to soften in line with broader commodity trends.  Carbide and tungsten alloys are exhibiting similar behavior.

Overall, the market is cautiously trending downward amid ongoing tariff uncertainty, especially after a rapid 90-day suspension following their implementation.  Still, the stainless and alloy sectors show resilience, buoyed by consistent—if subdued—demand.

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 Market Update March 2025

hbragg Market Update

While we’re seeing some non-ferrous commodities approach historically high levels, on the whole, uncertainty surrounding the impact of tariffs on global markets continues to dominate.  Business sentiment remains subdued, with limited expectations for robust growth in the near term as stakeholders await the outcomes of U.S. tariff decisions and how other nations may respond.

Steel:

March steel pricing has settled with a modest increase in Prime and Secondary scrap metal, while steel turnings remain the same as last month. Uncertainty of proposed tariffs on steel while it has changed throughout the past month has led several steel users to increase their purchases even without the demand. While some countries have retaliated to US tariffs, others like Brazil successfully avoided US tariffs through direct talks. The removal of steel import quotas and nontariffed systems by the US, even as President Donald Trump reimposes steel tariffs, may help level the international playing field, allowing countries that have been unable to compete for years in the US steel market a chance to sell steel into the country.

Non-ferrous:

Copper buyers have widened spreads for copper scrap because of uncertainty surrounding the possible implications of tariffs and a slowing global economy. Spreads have opened between 25 cents to 50 cents per pound depending on the grade of copper. Argus Metals reports that US copper exporters struggle to remain competitive because of the wide arbitrage between the CME and the London Metal Exchange (LME), which reduced export options and increased material in the domestic market from dealers that typically export.

While aluminum sales volumes remain depressed, the uncertainty of both the March 12 tariff and the postponed 25pc all-goods import tariff on March 6 is adding some support to the market, with some mills saying the on- and off-again tariffs delay long-term pricing decisions.

Used beverage can (UBC) mills have raised buying prices this week as the London Metal Exchange (LME) prices rose to nearly a three-year high. Tariff confusions also lent some support to secondary scrap and alloy prices.

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Stainless and Alloy:

Modest uptick in LME Nickel relative to its 30-day average, a shift that pales in comparison to the immediate impacts tariffs have had on Aluminum and Copper markets. Most gains have been realized in the past week, signaling a brief yet noteworthy surge. Meanwhile, anticipation for an increase in demand for 304 and 316 stainless steel, driven by a slowdown in scrap flow and the strengthening of ferrous values. However, the Molybdenum market remains weak, which tempers the potential gains in 316 stainless steel. Conversely, chrome stainless values have edged upward, finding support from the robust ferrous market.

High-temperature alloys, pricing has remained stagnant, despite a surprising reversal in the Cobalt market.  Mills and end-users alike are exercising caution, adopting a wait-and-see approach as they assess the potential impact of tariffs on global supply chains and pricing structures.

Titanium prices are in a lull, as cheaper units circulate and are consumed before users seek prime-grade material.  A more optimistic outlook is expected once the implications of tariffs and shifts in global scrap flows become clearer. Anticipation is also building for an uptick in Aerospace and Defense orders, which could drive pricing by mid-to-late Q2.

Tool Steel and High-Speed Steels have remained relatively flat, despite a strengthening ferrous market and the rising Cobalt prices.  Consistent demand for Tungsten alloys persists, though there is hope for improved scrap values moving forward.

 Market Update February 2025

hbragg Market Update

Good afternoon,

Last month’s upward movement continues aggressively in February while reacting to the threatened tariffs, and we’re seeing the impact with responses from end consumers. 

Steel:

The currently proposed 25% tariff on steel has created an approximate 10% increase in scrap pricing for February. If these depending on the country of origin, could likely lead to another significant increase in the near future. Some steel mills have reported they are not producing at full capacity and are waiting for 1) increased prices and 2) clarity on what the tariff percent will be when final as well as the length of the tariff before expanding outputs. 

Non-ferrous:

Aluminum and copper have been reacting to daily international updates. Most revolving around the imposing US tariffs. Copper rose over 30 cents in a few days only to retreat back wards this Tuesday. However, exporters and copper foundries have widened their spreads to historic levels, trying to offset the market increase. 

Canadian aluminum exporters, which are the US’s largest importer of primary aluminum, have reduced their volumes.  Many US mills have idled some facilities and are waiting on profit analysis before restarting.

The UBC market is waiting for tariff clarity which is expected to continue to raise prices like other industries. However, these mills have also widened their pricing to offset the hike.  

Stainless and Alloy:

Nickel prices are rather flat over the past month, and overall market interest remains subdued due to stagnant mill demand and steady supply.  While potential legislative action in the Philippines to ban ore exports could stimulate future pricing, any significant impact is likely years away. 

Stainless steel grades 304 and 316 continue to hold steady, whereas chrome stainless grades have experienced a minor uptick, indicating some strength in that segment.

Aerospace and high-temperature alloy prices continue to decline as cobalt weakens, with limited demand from producers exacerbating the downturn.  Grades with higher cobalt content are seeing sharper price reductions due to the metal’s continued depreciation and lack of purchasing activity.

Titanium prices have retreated slightly as stricter qualification standards have narrowed the applicable use of certain grades, leading to weaker demand from mills.  Additionally, increased business at Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) facilities suggests that manufacturers are prioritizing equipment longevity over new material purchases to avoid costly replacements.  This shift, coupled with reduced global trade activity compared to 2024, points to a broader market slowdown.

High-speed steel prices have also declined slightly, reflecting the continued weakening of cobalt.  Meanwhile, tungsten alloys and carbide pricing remain in a state of uncertainty, as the market stabilizes in response to China’s newly imposed export standards, which took effect on February 4.  The long-term implications of these regulations remain unclear, adding an additional layer of unpredictability to the global metals market.