Good Morning, 

As we enter the 4^th quarter, we’re reminded that Q4 has been a period of limited growth and lighter trading activity. This year, the uncertainty surrounding potential new tariffs and import duties makes forecasting even more challenging. Until clearer trade terms are established, manufacturing sectors are likely to remain cautious, limiting material intake as they prepare to enter 2026 with restrained confidence and measured inventory positions.

Steel:

The steel market softened slightly this month, with prime, cut grades and shred grades declining $10-$20/GT. Demand remains sluggish in key sectors like construction and automotive, while global overcapacity—especially from new production in Asia—continues to weigh on prices. Trade policies and tariffs are also shaping the landscape, with both the U.S. and EU maintaining protectionist measures. Input costs for materials like iron ore and energy remain volatile, squeezing margins for producers. Analysts expect steel prices to stay relatively steady through the end of 2025, with potential for a gradual rebound in 2026 as demand slowly recovers.

Non-ferrous: 

The growing arbitrage between the London Metal Exchange (LME) and Comex copper markets is once again causing wider copper scrap discounts in domestic and export markets, primarily driven by policy changes. This was previously observed in July 2025, following a tariff announcement that created historical spreads before being partially walked back.

Even as the LME and Midwest premiums hit record highs, the story on the ground feels a bit different. With inventories still running high and supply readily available, scrap prices have remained relatively steady—showing only minimal movement despite the broader market surge. Recent supply disruptions—most notably the major fire at a Novelis plant in September 2025—have further tightened parts of the market. At the same time, fewer aluminum outlets are only adding to the oversupply challenge, making an already complex situation even more difficult to navigate

Stainless and Alloy:

The LME has been trading within a notably tight range over the past month; however, weak mill demand continues to exert downward pressure on stainless grades. Compounding this softness, one of the major mills has temporarily halted operations for a three-week maintenance period. Grade 304 has experienced a more pronounced price reduction, with 316 following suit—partly due to the continued decline in Molybdenum values. Additionally, Q4 activity is subdued as many users seek to close out the year lean, avoiding excess inventory buildup.

High-temperature alloys are also trending weaker as demand continues to wane through the remainder of 2025. Mills are signaling reduced order volumes, reinforcing an overall cautious sentiment. While Cobalt prices are showing renewed strength, Molybdenum remains under pressure, and market participants have largely retreated to the sidelines. Cobalt’s gains may take additional time to translate into broader value improvements given the sustained softness in demand and prolonged floor-level trading. A slower-than-expected recovery in aircraft production has also constrained price movement across this segment.

Titanium markets remain unsettled, burdened by oversupply and postponed demand from aerospace and defense sectors. Although medium-term demand growth is anticipated, current production continues to outpace consumption. In anticipation of this slowdown, the world’s largest titanium sponge producer reduced output during Q3. At the same time, ongoing challenges related to tariffs and import duties have increased costs by as much as 60% in certain cases, significantly eroding profit margins.

Tool steel values remain relatively steady, while high-speed steels may find modest support from firmer Cobalt prices. Nevertheless, a more substantial rebound in manufacturing activity will be needed to sustain any meaningful upside. Tungsten carbide values, which had seen notable increases earlier in the year, appear to be stalling as Chinese market support has softened for two consecutive weeks.

I hope all is well there! We’re seeing some market stability heading into September. However Q4 sentiment has cooled, with recovery expectations pushed into early 2026. Consumers and mills are anticipated to re-enter the market with renewed appetite. However, lingering uncertainty around tariffs poses a potential drag on both demand forecasts and anticipated delivery schedules.

Steel:

Breaking last years trend of sideways movement to the end of the year, prime scrap dropped after standing still for 4 months. Reduced prices for mill sales along with an abundance of prime scrap available led to this months drop. Cut grades went remained the same and are expected to continue the trend in October. However, there’s anticipation of some life going into the final 2 months.

Non-ferrous:

US president Donald Trump has stated he will lower tariffs on EU-manufactured cars and auto parts to 15% as part of a trade agreement with the European bloc, but the effective date has yet to be determined. The copper arbitrage between the LME and Comex has remained close during the past month leading to improved copper spreads. Future copper consumption for increased US data centers to support AI will help keep prices stable and at some point, increase well as continued construction is maintained and grows.

The aluminum market has been relatively quiet internationally with the US Midwest aluminum premium maintaining its historic high. Consumers normally start to discuss next year’s orders over the next month. Due to future uncertainty, negotiations are currently being delayed until there is clarity regarding global tariffs, which will result in a longer review period.             

Stainless and Alloy:

LME Nickel has remained confined within a narrow trading band over the past month. Stainless grades 304 and 316 are holding firm but could experience modest downward pressure in October as mill orders soften. Chrome stainless grades appear comparatively stable for the moment, though that stability may shift as additional mill guidance emerges.

High-temperature alloys continue to exhibit weakness, with consumers and mills alike deferring deliveries. Ample supply remains in the market, adding further weight to prices. Last month’s optimism surrounding a Q4 aerospace rebound has since diminished, with analysts now pushing expectations of renewed strength into Q1 2026.

Titanium markets remain unsettled, with abundant supply driving continued price volatility. The aerospace and aviation sectors have delayed activity, while steady scrap flow sustains downward pricing momentum. Since reductions began in April 2025, certain titanium grades have fallen nearly 15% from their 12-month highs. A meaningful recovery may prove a longer journey, with a rebound not anticipated until closer to the end of Q2 2026.

Tool steel values remain largely stagnant, though tungsten carbide pricing shows encouraging signs of improvement. China continues to absorb much of the scrap produced but has been slow to reintroduce units into the global market—a key factor supporting elevated values.

Steel:

Following last years trend the steel market moved sideways for the fourth consecutive month, with the exception for the slight increase in turnings. While steel exports to some countries remain steady, it is lower than 2024 at this time and earlier this year. There is still some confidence that demand will heat up as we enter the fourth quarter.

Non-ferrous:

President Trump’s early July copper tariff announcement created a bearish market resulting several US mills looking to pivot to LME copper for stability and lower international pricing. After a month of widening consumer spreads, Comex dropped to the LME copper level once the US Proclamation was released, make the 2 markets aligned. The is still a large surplus of copper in the US; however, some mills are starting to heat up and taking orders.

Argus Metals reported that aluminum mills are still seeing current pricing drop steeper than the LME with continued oversupply. Consumers stated they’re well stocked through September and are looking towards October for deliveries.

Stainless and Alloy:

The 30-day LME Nickel average continues to trend in line with last month, maintaining relative stability with a slight downward drift. Stainless grades 304 and 316 remain largely flat; however, 316 may see modest upward movement, supported by a recent uptick in Molybdenum pricing and emerging concerns over supply. The Molybdenum rally has been further pressured by the imposition of higher reciprocal tariffs from the U.S. Chrome stainless grades remain stable for now, generally tracking alongside the broader ferrous market, which continues to move sideways.

High-temperature alloys have seen a continued softening in value, following the light retreat in Nickel and persistent weakness in the Cobalt market. That said, there are encouraging signs that aerospace demand is beginning to rebound—an encouraging signal that could lend support and possibly reverse the trend in pricing for these specialty alloys.

Titanium demand remains subdued, though a sustained recovery in the aerospace sector could help stabilize values in the near term. Analysts anticipate clearer signals as we approach the next fiscal year, when expected order flow may begin to materialize.

Tool steels and high-speed steels continue to face lackluster demand with little price movement to note. In contrast, carbide demand is robust, and pricing may trend upward. That said, volatility remains high—any easing in tariff-related pressures could quickly shift momentum, so buyers are advised to approach cautiously.

Overall, much of the market is maintaining a steady but cautious posture, as the broader industry awaits clarity on evolving tariff developments. The prospect of additional tariffs being implemented by month-end remains a significant factor, continuing to disrupt planning and confidence across the manufacturing sector.

Good afternoon, 

I hope you had a wonderful holiday weekend! This month we’re still seeing the normal summertime lull for steel, experiencing another shakeup in the non-ferrous markets. Market sentiment overall remains cautious. The evolving landscape of global tariffs and potential trade negotiations is casting uncertainty over long-term planning and making it increasingly difficult for some manufacturers to conduct business with confidence.

Steel:

The steel market moved sideways again for the third consecutive month. Last year at this time we were gearing up for seven consecutive months of repeat pricing before the market showed signs of life this past January. Domestic and international weak markets along with ample scrap availability ultimately prevented upward movements in prices this month that some recyclers were initially expecting.

Non-ferrous: 

Chinese buyers continue to show little interest in US copper scrap due to their ongoing sluggish economy and struggling real estate market. Combined with the wide arbitrage between the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the London Metal Exchange, domestic consumers are still pricing and historically high copper spreads. President Trump’s July 9 tariff negotiation deadline has been contributing to a bearish market. Argus Metals states that “He began delivering letters on Monday to countries that detail their new ‘reciprocal’ tariff rates if trade negotiations fail to yield an agreement.” However, the recent 50% copper tariff announcement has sent Comex copper running up, while the LME copper declines.

Aluminum rolling mills continue to lower their buying prices with weaker demand. The soft interest for used beverage cans (UBC) is coupled with some mills quoting for September delivery. We’re also seeing a larger decrease in the smelter grade aluminum scrap that is associated with the domestic decrease in the automobile industry. 

Stainless and Alloy:

The 30-day LME Nickel average has remained relatively steady to slightly down, showing resilience compared to other commodity markets that have been more visibly impacted by newly imposed tariffs. Stainless grades 304 and 316 continue to hold firm, buoyed by recent declines in scrap flow. However, 316 may experience upward pricing pressure as supply tightens in Molybdenum concentrates. Chrome stainless grades remain stable for the time being, perhaps benefiting from the broader steel market’s sideways movement.

High-temperature alloys have seen a modest decline, reflecting the subtle downward trend in their underlying input markets. Encouragingly, demand has proven more robust than expected heading into July, providing some support against further erosion in value.

In contrast, Titanium grades continue to soften, particularly select prime material, as labor tensions escalate in Europe. A pending strike vote by members of the European Unite union—spurred by disputes over inadequate pay—could lead to production delays and disrupt Airbus delivery schedules, casting a shadow over an already fragile sector.

Tool steels, high-speed steels, and Tungsten alloys are poised for potential price increases, with recent import duties reducing the availability of these goods in the U.S. market.

This month we’re still seeing uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs which continue to cast a shadow over procurement strategies. Some consumers remain hesitant to commit to additional volumes, and overall confidence heading into Q3 is muted. Without a clear resolution on tariffs and market volatility, near-term strength appears unlikely on some of the commodities.

Steel:

The steel market has hopefully bottomed out with all grades moving sideways for June. While consumers were anticipating lower steel prices on shred and cut grades, some stronger buying programs across the Midwest steel mills helped to boost prices to remain the same as last month. This likely helped to absorb a portion of the overhanging scrap in the market. Seeing an increase in futures trading promises some hope for a stronger July market.

Non-ferrous: 

The US increasing aluminum and steel tariffs from 25% to 50% has created an international stir. The Midwest Premium jumped to record levels last week once the additional tariffs were determined, driving pricing to unprecedented heights. As a result, aluminum mills lowered their buying prices to offset the rapidly rising MWTP. Several UBC (Used Beverage Can) mills are full for June and July, with abundant supply and limited availability until at least August. Rest assured, being the largest UBC processor in North America, USM contracts allow us to continue to process and deliver all of our material as scheduled.

Copper spreads continued to widen the past week during some Comex swings and tepid domestic demand. Large copper scrap volumes are remaining in the US with consumers still not showing a real demand. There is a growing concern that copper may be next in line for an increased tariff and that  fallout that we’re seeing with aluminum. 

Stainless and Alloy:

LME Nickel continues to trade within a narrow range, yet demand has become increasingly insufficient. This weakening appetite has applied downward pressure on pricing, with notable discounts emerging across 304 and 316 stainless grades. Chrome stainless is similarly trending lower, driven by ongoing decline in iron values this month.

High-temperature alloys remain relatively stable, sustained by selective demand. However, market sentiment suggests that supply may soon outpace forecasts, particularly as consumers approach inventory thresholds.

Titanium grades continue to soften amid persistent demand weakness, compounded by a consistent influx of lower-cost Ferro Titanium, which is steadily accumulating in the market.

Tool Steel, High-Speed Steel, and Tungsten alloys remain firm. However, pricing may trend upward in the near term, as ongoing tariffs and constrained global flows tighten domestic supply and create upward pressure.

I’d like to share that once again we are ranked among North America’s 20 largest Non-ferrous recyclers in North America. Recycling Today has bestowed us with this honor consecutively since 2005. Thank you for your partnership and your choice to recycle responsibly with us! 

Click Here -Top 20 Non-Ferrous Recyclers Award-USM